Can AI predict the perfect Super Bowl ad?
Published on 14th March 2025The Super Bowl is one of the biggest moments in the advertising calendar. Brands have been competing more and more over the years to get their 30 seconds of prime attention and become the most talked about ad. The price for a 30-second slot has sky-rocketed since 2002, reaching $8 million for this latest round in 20251.
However, the other biggest conversation is the rise of AI, with some brands solely using AI in ads (looking at you, Coca-Cola Christmas ad). But, with no silver bullet for what works and what doesn’t, one question stands out: can AI predict what would work well in a Super Bowl ad?
We started by asking AI what it thinks makes a successful ad and based on this, which one it thinks should take the top spot in 2025 – and it came out with the following:
- A successful Super Bowl ad balances entertainment, emotional impact and brand relevance, whilst leveraging the massive audience to create cultural conversation. The best ads tend to share emotional resonances, cultural relevance and timing, celebrity power, strong brand integration, simplicity, and clarity and multi-channel amplification
- Based on this year’s Super Bowl ads, the Dunkin’ Donuts commercial stands out as particularly successful by authentically incorporating well-known personalities in a relatable and humorous scenario, enhancing brand recognition and viewer enjoyment
However, when we compare this to the two reports from System 12:
- America’s favourite based on star rating (long-term brand-building potential) was from the brand Lay’s and the NFL
- In terms of short-term sales potential (measured by spike rating), this was Reese’s and Doritos
- Interestingly, in 2025, Dunkin’ didn’t rank in the top 10 for either of these measures
It is worth noting that Dunkin’ has doubled down on its creative since 2024, making them more likely to see the effect of compound creativity, but it’s interesting to see the difference between AI and other measures of success.
AI can be powerful in a lot of different ways, and it does provide the right theory when thinking about the Super Bowl ads. However, as the most successful ads tap into human emotion, cultural context and unpredictable moments, this weakens the impact that AI can have.
- AI can tell us what worked before, but culture and relevance move fast. What was funny, emotional or relevant today, might not land in the same way tomorrow, and AI doesn’t have a way to stay on top of this currently
- Data is a huge help to inform a winning formula, but creativity must be applied. Often the best Super Bowl ads are those which tried something new, fresh or different – and weren’t always based on what had come before
- The future of advertising must consider a blend between AI and human nuance. AI can create scale and personalisation, but to truly connect, creativity needs to be layered on in a human way based on what we know to be true and what we could imagine might be true in a new context or situation
What’s your prediction – will AI ever crack the Super Bowl ad formula?
